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Decade of the Smartphone

By Jason Gilman

A Brief Look Back

Ten years ago cell phones were commonplace, but not completely ubiquitous. Many people owned mobile phones, but probably twice as many didn't. As we all know, time flies when it comes to technology and those numbers completely reversed by the end of the decade.

Today in 2010 cell phones have achieved such widespread adoption that it has became unusual for someone not to have one. Costs came down, calling plans improved and network coverage expanded. Now it's fairly common for people to forgo their conventional land lines in favor of their mobile phone.

Smartphones are now in a position very similar to where cell phones were ten years ago. Blackberries and iPhones are commonplace, but still less prevalent than conventional cell phones. That's going to change within a few years now though and mobile phone usage is poised to take another evolutionary leap when that happens. My prediction is that the 2010's will be the decode of the smartphone.

What is a Smartphone?

So what exactly is a smartphone anyway? In my mind it has a few specific characteristics.

First and foremost a smartphone is a mobile, internet connected communications and computing device. You have to be able to make calls, send texts and surf the web on it, but it's not limited to those tasks. In fact it should be flexible enough that application developers can come up with uses nobody has even thought of today.

A high resolution color touch sensitive screen. This is a must for surfing the web, watching video, listening to music, reading ebooks, checking email, playing games and general ease of use. I don't expect physical keyboards to ever go completely away, but they're not a requirement and they do force manufactures to compromise screen real estate .

A built in camera for video and stills. Smartphone users will consume media and create it. It's also conceivable that smartphones could eventually have not one, but two cameras with one facing the user to allow for video conferencing.

GPS. Having locational and geographical awareness at all times and conveying it to the user is invaluable.

Smartphone Platforms

There are currently three platforms that look especially poised to dominate the coming decade: Blackberry, iPhone, and Android.

Research in Motion's Blackberry came first and built an early lead in the smartphone market during the end of the last decade by establishing itself as the premiere mobile email platform. Unfortunately the arrival of the iPhone redefined smartphone expectations and RIM has struggled to come up with a full on touchscreen based competitor. Most longtime users swear by their dual thumb powered keyboards anyway so it's unclear what the best screen and input approach for the platform will be going forward.

Apple's iPhone rocked the smartphone market when it debuted 3 years ago and offers the most well rounded interface and best user experience to date. The use of a multitouch screen interface was groundbreaking and its abilities as a media playing, highly flexible computing device quickly distanced it from the competition. Throw in a thriving Application store with over 100,000 apps to date and you have a smartphone juggernaut. The biggest flaw for the platform right now is its dependence on mobile carrier AT&T, but word on the street is that the next iPhone revision will support CDMA as well as GSM networks and finally open the door to official support for additional carriers like Verizon.

Google's Android OS is beginning to pick up steam as multiple manufacturers continue to hop on board. Motorola's widely-hyped Droid phone was getting a lot of attention at the end of 2009, but Google and HTC's collaboration on the newly introduced Nexus One has all eyes focused on it as we begin 2010. Google's single biggest advantage over the other two platforms is its ability to integrate Android smartphones directly with its many cloud based web applications like Gmail and Google Docs to seamlessly sync users information from computer to phone.

10 Years From Now

Five years, let alone ten is a very long time to try to successfully discern anything from the technological crystal ball, but I have a few predictions.

In the short term I expect to see Apple's iPhone platform to build a steady lead while Google's Android platform dukes it out with Rim's Blackberry for second place. I also think we can safely expect more computing power, better battery life, improved network speed and coverage and widespread touchscreen adoption in the years. Beyond that and perhaps most significantly I think the cell phone as we know it today will essentially be extinct. In ten years even the lowest end mobile phone will be a smartphone by today's standards and that's pretty exciting.

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What I really want to see added to smartphones is rf-based universal remote capabilities. Wouldn't it be great if you could control your home electronics, start your car, etc with the device you carry around all the time? At what point do we stop calling these things "phones" at all?

Good point Micah, between WiFi and Bluetooth smartphones have plenty of ways to communicate with modern electronics that add internet/wireless capabilities. It's mostly just a software issue.

I just got a new smart phone and I'm still struggling to learn how to use it. I'm sure it will be great once I become accustomed to things. Great intel, by the way.

June Campbell Jan 6, 2010 16:18

Great intel. Using an iPhone has replaced my pager, mobile phone and iPod in one foul swoop. Roll on the next generation iPhone.

drkelp Jan 6, 2010 16:25

The rate of change is phenomenal. I was reading that touchscreens will be fading as gestural controls take over in a few short years. Hmmm, picture that while driving or sitting in a meeting!

mulberry Jan 6, 2010 20:56

I agree with Micah, these things have evolved far beyond 'phones'. The most incredible thing is how a huge marketplace has grown up around the iPhone. It turns out on this small handheld device you can do things you couldn't do on the web - monetize your app. That's just awesome.

nick Jan 6, 2010 21:33

Hey Jason, thanks for the info, cool, will try to keep an eye on your predictions.

tedbotting Jan 7, 2010 00:22

While I am a geek and would love to own a Smartphone, in reality I connect to the internet at work and at home, and don't need to do that on my phone. I also don't need to access email from my phone, and if I don't pay for the internet connection and therefore can't download photos from my phone (many phones are "crippled" so that you can only email photos to get them off), then the camera is useless to me. I also don't listen to my MP3 player much, only when flying, so I don't need that on my phone either. What I need is just a mobile phone that behaves like a phone and nothing else, and also sounds like a phone! Most phones now it seems only come with fancy musical ringtones that to me are pretty annoying. I just want a good old fashioned ring, not something that is loud and agravating to all around me when I get an incoming call.

Poddys, amusingly enough, I have a coworker that has the sound of an old fashioned rotary phone ring as his smartphone ringtone and I find it both loud and aggravating. That said, while I understand where you're coming from as far as wanting a basic phone, the use cases you've described are already pretty much standard features for the vast majority of conventional cell phones and a small subset of what current smartphones can do. Convergence has been happening all along.

Yes I do agree with you, all ringtones are annoying, and it's hard to find something really subtle. The old rotary phone ring is ok if the volume is down I guess, but later phones had a more soothing tone.

I know all phones still work as phones, but it frustrates me having to buy a phone that has a camera etc when I am never going to use it.

Poddys Jan 7, 2010 06:02

If this is the decade of the smartphone I'd better lose my "dumbfone" ASAP! Hope I don't have to be smart to use it though, I'm a bit of a dummy when it comes to gadgets!

Brad Leon Jan 7, 2010 09:30

I always used to be very knowledgeable when it came to new gadgets, but as I have got older, and somewhat poorer too, I need to justify how I spend my money.

Time is also a big issue for me these days, so I don't have time to idly spend each evening playing the latest console games, or downloading the latest apps to my smartphone.

Subsequently, over the last 10 years I have fallen way behind, at a time when personal technology has advanced in many directions at a speed previously unknown. I wonder if any of us older folks will ever catch up?

Poddys Jan 7, 2010 09:56

Afraid these modern phones are way over my non-techie head. I phone people, I text, and if I want I can take photos. That`s all I need one for.

odls Jan 7, 2010 10:04

Great intel, Jason.
I have trouble with the basic cell phone, as age 74, trifocal glasses and fat unsteady fingers make these tiny gadgets hard to operate. A great many of us senior citizens only want a phone. We represent 1/3 of the population and manufacturers just might need to take that into consideration.
Thanks for sharing.
Frederick

frederick Jan 7, 2010 10:06

I think that however teenagers make up close to 50% of the people who buy new phones every year, and the new smartphones earn far more profit for the manufacturers than our basic phones. Plus, promoting smartphones and charging for the additional services, the phone companies make more money.

Me? I just use my cell phone for making calls, I don't even have a need to text people.

Poddys Jan 7, 2010 10:15

Mobile phone companies must hate people like me. A couple of years ago I changed from a `contract` type of agreement to pay-as-you-go. I currently spend something like £5 every 2 months on my top ups.

odls Jan 7, 2010 10:57

LOL you are as bad as me. 3 years ago I brought a PAYG cell phone from Tesco, and even though I moved back to the UK at the end of July, I have put less than ₤40 on it. I barely use it, it's mostly for incoming calls, and then I barely get 2 or 3 a week.

Poddys Jan 7, 2010 14:27

The really bad part of this to me is that increasingly as tech devices advance in complexity, cost, and their invasion into our lives, we are increasingly "required" to have them. One day, we probably will have only two options to pay for things, cash or cell phone. Many employers directly or indirectly require you to carry them. I doubt it will stop here. It's just like computers, everyone wants to increasingly do things via e-mail etc. I've been told that I couldn't purchase things online or get information from someplace unless I had an e-mail address (which I have of course)...seems we often have no choice in these matters. For those of us who are frugal or love simplicity...it's being stolen away.

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